QIN-MOCI: quinault MULTIVARIATE OCEAN CLIMATE INDicator
What is QIN-MOCI?
The QIN-MOCI synthesizes a number of local and regional ocean and atmospheric conditions that represent, in a holistic manner, the state of the Quinault coastal conditions. QIN-MOCI includes data that are readily available from the Internet so the indicator can be updated and shared regularly via this website.
QIN-MOCI encompasses 30 years, capturing warming events impacting the Northeast Pacific across decades, like El Niño and marine heatwaves. It also captures changes in timing and magnitude of the shift from downwelling to coastal upwelling, and river runoff in the spring, which impact temperature and salinity conditions. These conditions and their variability affect the marine ecosystem, therefore QIN-MOCI could be useful in ecosystem-based fisheries and wildlife management.
Most recent QIN-MOCI: Updated through December 2024 (Fall). This season, QIN-MOCI values remain neutral, although with an upward trend for the last few seasons.
Data are provided in a .csv file for JFM 1995 - OND 2023.
Please cite this dataset as:
García-Reyes, M., Koval, G., and Sydeman, W.J. (2025). Quinault Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) [Data set, V2]. Farallon Institute website, http://www.faralloninstitute.org/moci-qin. Accessed [Date].
What data are included in MOCI?
MOCI include seasonal averages of the following data:
Upwelling Index, NOAA [link]
Sea level from shore stations, NOAA [link]
Alongshore wind, sea surface temperature, air temperature, sea level pressure from NOAA buoys [link]
River runoff, USGS [link]
Regional climate indices:
MEI: Multivariate ENSO Index [link]
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation [link]
NOI: Northern Oscillation Index [link]
NPGO: North Pacific Gyre Oscillation [link]
*Note: QIN-MOCI is calculated for a span of 30 years. Gaps in data are filled in using ERA5 reanalysis V5 data.
How to interpret MOCI?
Positive anomalous (red) values reflect warmer than normal conditions with weaker upwelling or stronger downwelling, often associated with El Niño, while large negative (blue) values reflect cooler than normal conditions and stronger upwelling. However, we discuss below a more specific interpretation of these values, which depends on the season.
What drives these conditions?
As a multivariate index, QIN-MOCI reflects variability in multiple indicators of environmental variables. However, the importance of each of these variables in driving the variability of conditions varies by season.
The figure below shows the individual importance of each variable in determining the variability of QIN-MOCI for each season. Size and intensity of color indicates the importance of each variable, and the color signifies the relationship (red is a positive influence, blue is a negative one). Across regions, the largest drivers are related to sea level and winds-relate upwelling and downwelling. Water and air temperature is also related to these variables in all seasons but spring, when it is also related to river runoff. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the climate indicator most relevant to the variability of the region, which is associated with sea surface temperatures.
More information about MOCI:
García-Reyes M, Sydeman WJ. 2017. California Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) and marine ecosystem dynamics. Ecological Indicators, 72, 521-529. [pdf]
Sydeman W, Thompson SA, García-Reyes M, Kahru M, Peterson W, Largier J. 2014. Multivariate ocean-climate indicators (MOCI) for the Central California Current: Environmental change: 2010-2014. Progress in Oceanography, 120, 352-369. [pdf]